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Are we about to witness a $22K Bitcoin price? Keep an eye on these critical levels leading up to the monthly close

Bitcoin (BTC) is back below $28,000 as the countdown to the monthly close keeps everyone on their toes.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

200-week trend line among popular BTC price targets


Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows BTC/USD dropping to two-day lows of $27,533 on March 31.

A modest bounce means that the pair is trading at around $27,800 at the time of writing as traders flag the most important support and resistance levels going forward.

For Crypto Tony, the current part of Bitcoin’s trading range is key, as $27,700 forms the equilibrium (EQ) level and key support that bulls should preserve.

“$27,700 is the level (EQ) you need to watch this weekend if you are currently in a fresh long position. Those who are in with me from awhile back, we are not worried unless we lose that range low,” he wrote in part of his latest Twitter analysis on the day.

An accompanying chart showed the top, bottom and EQ for BTC/USDT on Binance.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/Twitter

Continuing a popular narrative, Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, said that Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average (WMA) near $25,500 would be “front run” next.

This would translate to two-week lows, with bulls wanting to avoid a support or resistance flip of the 200WMA — something which occurred in mid-2022 and preceded months of downside.

I believe the 200-week ma will be front run for the following reasons:

- Already seen evidence of it
- People dont want to talk about exchange risk
- People dont want to talk about stablecoin risk
- Market is positioned short and desperate to exit

— filbfilb (@filbfilb) March 30, 2023

Considering high-timeframe (HTF) resistance now directly above the spot price, meanwhile, fellow trader Credible Crypto cautioned followers on staying bullish at nine-month highs.

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“You’re not allowed to get bullish at the highs into major HTF resistance. Now that we are testing our first actual level of support to the downside you ARE allowed to get a LITTLE bullish. If we are going to go for the highs again, we should hold here,” he said in a Twitter analysis.

Downside targets come in the form of $22,000–$23,000, with $25,000–$26,000 as a less drastic target should market strength hold.

“The RED region above us is HTF resistance and weekly supply which, thus far, remains untested. It would be logical to test this region before a larger correction to 22-23k BTC occurs,” Credible Crypto continued on an accompanying chart.

“This doesn’t mean it HAS to happen, but if we do rally from here back to the highs don’t flip mega bullish into resistance again.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Credible Crypto/Twitter

Bitcoin market structure has “shifted”


Concentrating on the monthly close, analytics account Tedtalksmacro offered a more optimistic angle.

Related: Will BTC ditch the bear market? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

On longer timeframes, he argued, Bitcoin has “truly shifted” its structure to produce a clean break with the bear market in place since its latest all-time highs in November 2021.

“Bitcoin is doing its best to advertise to those who’d want to enter + hold for the next cycle higher. On the weekly chart, it’s printed its first higher highs (HH) since November ’21 and first higher low (HL) since January ’22,” he summarized.

“Traders now have clear invalidation and can cut longs on acceptance back into the range below 24k. Market structure has well and truly shifted.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Ted/Twitter

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.


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